Can You Predict An NBA Bust?

Will he be a Bron or a Bennett? Hasheem or Hakeem? Washburn or Mashburn? NBA scouts put vast amounts of resources into trying to predict the future success of young basketball prospects. Surely they shouldn’t miss as much as they do. It seems that with every draft there is a top 5 pick who finds himself at the end of the bench or out of the league within 3 seasons.

One of the great pains felt by fans of a sports team is the feeling of having the opportunity to draft a great player but instead draft a bum. Sometimes it seems glaringly obvious and you wonder if the general manager is playing a sick prank. In 2003 the Detroit Pistons had their choice of future Hall of Famers, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony or Dwayne Wade. Instead they opted for Darko Milicic, a future apple farmer with frosted tips. In 2007 the Portland Trailblazers drafted Greg Oden ahead of Kevin Durant. Durant is an agile, 7 foot, sharp shooting basketball machine whilst Oden's left leg was longer than his right. He ran with a limp for God's sake.

Hindsight is the best and that's why I'll be using it to guess the next NBA failure. I compiled a list of the NBA's most notorious busts and attempted to determine the most common type of player that doesn’t live up to expectation.

Keep in mind, I have little to no knowledge of college basketball, so my prediction is purely based on what past players have fallen short.

My List of 25 NBA Busts:

• Joe Barry Carroll

• Joe Alexander

• Hasheem Thabeet

• Marvin Williams

• Shawn Bradley

• Jay Williams

• Robert Traylor

• Chris Washburn

• Adam Morrison

• Kwame Brown

• LaRue Martin

• Greg Oden

• Michael Olowokandi

• Darko Milichic

• Sam Bowie

• Stromile Swift

• Danny Ferry

• Ekpe Udoh

• Derrick Williams

• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

• Anthony Bennett

• Jahlil Okafor

• Dragan Bender

• Josh Jackson

All of these players were taken within the top 6 picks of their drafts. Some of them were ruined by injury, some couldn’t handle the pressure and one refused to shower.

Here is some of my research:

*All teams that are not on the chart did not draft one of the players.

Portland is famous for their terrible draft day decisions, they passed on Michael Jordan, the SECOND greatest basketball player ever. They didn't have a pick last year to screw up, but it's looking like the blazers will get a solid lottery pick in 2022. With them trading McCollum, benching Nurkic and allowing Dame to undergo season ending surgery, they are very much leaning into the tank. If they manage to scrape a top 5 pick, I smell a bust.

Centers are overrepresented in any list of NBA busts. They tend to be very hit or miss. the easy explanation is that Center is the most injury prone position. Imagine being over 7 foot, all the pressure on your knees and ankles from your enormous body.

Aside from that, Center is one of those positions in sports with reverence. Like baseball's pitcher or chess's queen. Kareem, Wilt, Russell, Shaq, Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Yao, Dwight, Embiid, Jokic all dominated the paint. I'd crack too if I was lined up to be the next great big.

I'm sure Marvin Bagely and Kristaps Porzingis can attest to this, centers seem to draw the most scrutiny from fans and the media. It's easy to see why, "You're 7 feet tall, how are you not scoring in a 10 foot rim". It's something about the lumbering, when they mess up everyone sees it. That would be enough for me to want to play in Nigeria. Poor Jahlil.

24/25 of the busts were right handed, consistent with the rest of the population.

The Average bust jersey number is 27.5

The average age of the bust on draft day is 20.875

The average bust was taken between the 2nd and 3rd pick.

Through extensive assumption and generalisations, I have come up with a couple potential busts to keep your eye on. This is presuming the mock drafts I see are accurate and no team pulls an absolute bender (pun intended) and takes someone completely off board.

1. Chet Holmgren

Yes, I have actually heard of this man. There is a ton of hype around him, which is not helping his case. He's a super tall, long, lanky center who wears 34, he also goes to Gonzaga, the very same school where Adam Morrisson didn't shower. Bad vibes, the odds are stacked against him.

2. Jalen Duren

Apparently the Portland Trailblazers have their eyes on Jalen. That has never been good for a center who is absolutely yoked. As well as this his face screams bust, some things can't be explained by statistics.

3. Mark Williams

Unfortunately for Mark Williams, he shares a name with Derrick, Marvin and Jay. Not a good sign. Hopefully he'll turn out to be more like Deron, Lou or Hot Rod.